8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Sep 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/11/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Sep 06	Aug 06 to Sep 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	18 216.4	0.3
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	18 178.4	0.1

		Sep Qtr 06	Jun Qtr 06 to Sep Qtr 06
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	52 609.3	0.7
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	52 487.1	0.4

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in September 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.4% in both August and July 2006.
In September 2006, all states and territories had an increase in the trend estimate.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.1% in September 2006. This follows a revised increase of 0.2% in August 2006 and an increase of 0.5% in July 2006.
All states and territories except New South Wales (-0.1%) and Queensland (-0.6%) had increases in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The largest increase occurred in Western Australia (+1.7%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 0.4% in September 2006 compared with August 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 0.2%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 0.6%.
Australian turnover increased by 5.5% in September 2006 compared with September 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 6.2%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 4.7%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 0.7% in the September quarter 2006. This follows a 0.9% increase in the June quarter 2006. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.4% in the September quarter 2006.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
October 2006	30 November 2006
November 2006	9 January 2007
December 2006	5 February 2007
January 2007	2 March 2007
February 2007	2 April 2007
March 2007	8 May 2007

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

The retail turnover volume measures are fixed-weighted volume measures using the relative prices of retail sales in 2004-05 as weights. The large drop in sales of bananas caused by supply shortages as a result of the damage from Cyclone Larry is reflected in the September quarter volume measures.

The changes in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for food retailing that can be derived by dividing the current price estimate of food retailing by the volume measure of food retailing, do not align with the changes in the food group in the consumer price index (CPI). This is because the IPD reflects current period weights and so has a lower weight applied to bananas than is the case with the CPI.

CHANGES IN TIME SERIES SPREADSHEETS

Additional time series spreadsheets, containing more detailed state by industry data, will be released with this issue of the publication.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for September 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 747.6	120.7
Change from preceding month ($m)	-66.6	49.5
% change from preceding month (%)	-0.4	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There was weak trend growth in September after nine months of moderate growth. Food retailing has had moderate growth for 14 months. Hospitality and services has had five months of weak growth. Department stores has been in decline for three months and Recreational good retailing has been in decline for at least 15 months. Clothing and soft good retailing was the only industry with strong trend growth in September.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth since August 2005. South Australia and Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for four and eight months respectively and Queensland had moderate growth in September 2006 after six months of strong growth. New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory have had four months of moderate growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

The trend for Department stores has been in decline for the last three months. All states were in decline in September. New South Wales and Victoria have been in decline for four months, Queensland for three months, South Australia for five months, the Australian Capital Territory for two months and Western Australia for one month.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth was strong in September 2006 after moderate growth for the previous six months. South Australia had strong trend growth in September after three months of moderate growth. New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania (three months) and Western Australia (12 months) have had strong trend growth. The Northern Territory was flat in September after seven months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth in the last two months, after strong growth in the previous three months. Victoria (six months), Queensland (five months), South Australia (seven months), Western Australia (ten months), the Northern Territory (14 months) and the Australian Capital Territory (six months) have all had strong trend growth. New South Wales has been flat for the past 15 months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been in decline for at least 15 months. Victoria has been in decline for 15 months, South Australia for five months, the Australian Capital Territory for four months and the Northern Territory had a decline in the trend in September 2006. In contrast, Tasmania has had strong trend growth for four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for four months following seven months of strong growth. New South Wales has had moderate trend growth in the last two months after eight months of strong growth and Western Australia has had five months of strong trend growth. Victoria was in decline in August and September 2006 while South Australia had a flat trend in September after six months of decline.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) had weak trend growth in September 2006 following moderate growth in the previous six months. Over this seven month period, the trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been mostly the same as Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been weak trend growth in the last five months. New South Wales has had five months of moderate trend growth and Western Australia had moderate growth in September 2006 after eight months of strong trend growth. The Australian Capital Territory has had ten months of strong trend growth, while Victoria, Queensland and South Australia have been in decline for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been weak trend growth in August and September 2006 after ten months of moderate growth. Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate trend growth for four and five months respectively while Other retailing has had moderate growth in the last two months following eight months of strong growth. Clothing and soft good retailing has had strong trend growth for three months. Department stores has been in decline for the past four months.

VICTORIA

There has been weak trend growth for four months. The trend for Food retailing was flat in September following three months of weak growth. Clothing and soft good retailing (three months) and Household good retailing (six months) have had strong growth. The other industries have been in decline for at least two months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 13 months. Food retailing had moderate growth in September 2006 following six months of strong trend growth. Household good retailing has had strong growth for five months. Department stores has been in decline for three months and Hospitality and services for eight months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend growth has been moderate for ten months. Food retailing (four months) and Household good retailing (seven months) have had strong trend growth. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong trend growth in September 2006 after three months of moderate growth. All other industries have been in decline for at least five months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend growth was moderate for September 2006 after strong growth for eight months. Hospitality and services has had the same pattern. Clothing and soft good retailing (12 months), Household good retailing (ten months) and Other retailing (five months) have had strong trend growth. The trend for Department stores was flat in September 2006 while Food retailing has been flat for four months.

TASMANIA

The trend has been weak for seven of the last eight months. Food retailing has been in decline for five months. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong trend growth for three and four months respectively.